Goals

Food Provision: Fisheries

Goal Description

The Fisheries sub-goal of Food Provision describes the ability to maximize the sustainable yield of wild-caught seafood for human consumption. For the BHI cod and herring stocks in the Baltic Sea were included as wild-caught fisheries.

Model & Data

The data used for this goal are composed of cod and herring spawning biomass (SSB) and fishing mortality (F) data. The current status is calculated as a function of the ratio (B’) between the single species current biomass at sea (B) and the reference biomass at maximum sustainable yield (BMSY), as well as the ratio (F’) between the single species current fishing mortality (F) and the fishing mortality at maximum sustainable yield (FMSY). B/Bmsy and F/Fmsy data are converted to scores between 0 and 1 using this general relationship.

Cod and herring data accessed from the ICES homepage > search for ‘cod’ or ‘herring’ > specify the ecoregion as Baltic Sea > search for the 2013 assessment.

Reference points

The reference point used for the computation are based on the MSY principle and are described as a functional relationship. MSY means the highest theoretical equilibrium yield that can be continuously taken on average from a stock under existing average environmental conditions without significantly affecting the reproduction process (European Union 2013, World Ocean Review 2013).

Other information

External advisors/goalkeepers are Christian Möllmann & Stefan Neuenfeldt

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

B/Bmsy by stock and year (fis_bbmsy): ICES Bmsy. Data sources:

F/Fmsy by stock and year (fis_ffmsy): ICES Fmsy. Data sources:

Landings by stock and year (fis_landings): Annual Landings by ICES area and stock. Data sources: -ICES

Pressure

Current surface salinity water rescaled between historic max and future min (cc_sal_surf): Modelled annual surface water (0-5 m) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current deep water salinity (cc_sal_deep): Modelled annual deep water (depth differs by basin) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current sea surface temperature (cc_sst): Modelled Jul-Aug SST using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

nitrogen pollution (po_nload): nitrogen load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven large basins

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Atmospheric deposition (po_atmos_pcb153): Atmospheric deposition of PCB-153 on the Baltic Sea . Data sources: - HELCOM provides EMEP/MSC data for Baltic Sea basins

Phosphorus pollution (po_pload): phosphorus load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven major basins

Trash pollution (po_trash): Density of trash from coastal land and sea (Ocean Conservancy). Data sources: - Ocean Conservancy International Coastal Cleanup 2012

Bottom oxygen level (mg_L_1) (hab_anoxia): From Carstensen et al. 2014. Carstensen provided dbf files containing O2 (mg_L_1) for a series of years for the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland. Other areas are not included in this study but at the present time have no anoxia problems - therefore they will recieve a pressure value of 0. Data scaled between 0 and 1.

Resilience

Directive 2009/147/EC (res_reg_birds): Directive 2009/147/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 November 2009 on the conservation of wild birds

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Regulation 1380/2013/EU (res_reg_cfp): Regulation 1380/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on the Common Fisheries Policy, amending Council Regulations (EC) No 1954/2003 and (EC) No 1224/2009 and repealing Council Regulations (EC) No 2371/2002 and (EC) No

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 1992/43/EC (res_reg_hd): Directive 1992/43/EC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora

Convention on the Protection (res_reg_helcom): Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area 1992

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Food Provision: Mariculture

Goal Description

The Mariculture sub-goal of the Food Provision (FP) goal describes a country’s ability to maximize the sustainable yield of farmed fish and shellfish in the ocean for human consumption. Mariculture is not a large industry in the Baltic, but it does provide some food production. For the BHI rainbow trout production was included in parts of Denmark, Sweden, Germany, and Finland, using available data. All other BHI regions are scored as NA, and thus MAR will not contribute to their overall FP goal score.

Model & Data

Tonnes of mariculture production data were collected from country databases or reports:

Sweden Jorbruksverket
Denmark Danish Agrifish Agency (Ministry of Environment and Food of Denmark)
Finland Natural Resources Institute
Germany FAO FishStatJ

Reference points

IN PROGRESS

Other information

Data were compiled primarily by Ginnette Flores Carmenate.

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

Coastal population inland 25 kilometers (mar_coastalpopn2005_inland25km): Coastal 25 km buffer population, from 2005. Source HYDE

Mariculture species harvested (mar_harvest_species): Mariculture species harvested, from national databases

Mariculture sustainability score (mar_sustainability_score): Mariculture sustainability and mariculture regulations indicated by the Mariculture Sustainability Index (MSI). Data sources: - Trujillo P. (2008). Using a mariculture sustainability index to rank countries performances. In: A comparative assessment of biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture in 53 countries Exclusive Economic Zones, Alder J, Pauly D, editors. Fisheries Centre Research Report, vol. 16(7) p. 2856.

Mariculture harvest (mar_harvest_tonnes): Mariculture harvest

Pressure

Current surface salinity water rescaled between historic max and future min (cc_sal_surf): Modelled annual surface water (0-5 m) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current deep water salinity (cc_sal_deep): Modelled annual deep water (depth differs by basin) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current sea surface temperature (cc_sst): Modelled Jul-Aug SST using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

nitrogen pollution (po_nload): nitrogen load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven large basins

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Atmospheric deposition (po_atmos_pcb153): Atmospheric deposition of PCB-153 on the Baltic Sea . Data sources: - HELCOM provides EMEP/MSC data for Baltic Sea basins

Phosphorus pollution (po_pload): phosphorus load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven major basins

Resilience

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Regulation 1380/2013/EU (res_reg_cfp): Regulation 1380/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on the Common Fisheries Policy, amending Council Regulations (EC) No 1954/2003 and (EC) No 1224/2009 and repealing Council Regulations (EC) No 2371/2002 and (EC) No

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Regulation 1907/2006/EC (res_reg_reach): Regulation 1907/2006/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 December 2006 concerning the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH), establishing a European Chemicals Agency, amending Directive 1999/45/EC

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Artisanal Fishing Opportunity

Goal Description

Artisanal fishing, often also called small-scale fishing, provides a critical source of food, nutrition, poverty alleviation and livelihood opportunities for many people around the world, in particular in developing nations. This goal measure whether people who need to fish on a small, local scale have the opportunity to do so. It has three sub-components: stock, access, and need. A score of 100 means the country or region is meeting the needs of artisanal fishermen or communities by implementing institutional supports, providing access to near-shore water, and maintaining the health of targeted species.

For the BHI, we focus on the stock sub-component and use this as a proxy for the entire goal.

Model & Data

The artisanal fishing opportunity (AO) model assesses the health of fish stocks, represented by the mean of two core indicators for coastal fish stock abundance prepared by the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission - Helsinki Commission (HELCOM),

the [HELCOM Core Indicator Abundance of coastal fish key functional groups] (http://helcom.fi/baltic-sea-trends/indicators/abundance-of-coastal-fish-key-functional-groups/). It evaluates the abundance of selected functional groups of coastal fish in the Baltic Sea. As a rule, Good Environmental Status (GES) is achieved when the abundance of piscivores (i.e. fish that feed on other fish) is high and the abundance of cyprinids (i.e. fish that feed on e.g. benthic invertebrates) is within an acceptable range.
the HELCOM Core Indicator Abundance of key coastal fish species. It has been evaluated by assessing the status of piscivores and cyprinids during the period 2009-2013. The key coastal fish core indicator evaluates the abundance of typical species of fish, such as perch and flounder, in the coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, to assess environmental status. As a rule, Good Environmental Status (GES) is achieved when the abundance is above a set site and species specific boundary. The current evaluation assesses status during the period 2009-2013.

Each of the indicators was then scaled between 0 and 1. GES is assessed as either GES or sub-GES based on data times series using either a baseline or a trend approach, see HELCOM for explanation (http://helcom.fi/baltic-sea-trends/indicators/abundance-of-key-coastal-fish-species/good-environmental-status/). There is only a single assessment for each region. For a dataset if a monitoring station receives a “sub-GES” assessment, it is given the status score 0.2.

Environmental status assessments were provided by Jens Olsson (SLU, Sweden), see also HELCOM FISH-PRO II (http://www.helcom.fi/helcom-at-work/projects/fish-pro/). CPUE data used in the GES assessment. Data provided by Jens Olsson was also used in trend. Slopes from each analysis available here, but CPUE data held internally in the BHI database and not accessible here.

Reference points

Reference point was the maximum possible good environmental status (value = 1).

Considerations for BHI 2.0

Stock was one component of the AO goal. Model could be updated with parameters representing access and need of artisanal fishing opportunities in the future.

Other information

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

status of coastal fish stocks (ao_stock_status): HELCOM core indicators for coastal fish populations

slope of coastal fish stocks (ao_stock_slope): Mean slopes of all monitoring time series used for HELCOM core indicators for coastal fish populations

Pressure

Current surface salinity water rescaled between historic max and future min (cc_sal_surf): Modelled annual surface water (0-5 m) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current sea surface temperature (cc_sst): Modelled Jul-Aug SST using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

nitrogen pollution (po_nload): nitrogen load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven large basins

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Atmospheric deposition (po_atmos_pcb153): Atmospheric deposition of PCB-153 on the Baltic Sea . Data sources: - HELCOM provides EMEP/MSC data for Baltic Sea basins

Phosphorus pollution (po_pload): phosphorus load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven major basins

Trash pollution (po_trash): Density of trash from coastal land and sea (Ocean Conservancy). Data sources: - Ocean Conservancy International Coastal Cleanup 2012

Resilience

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Regulation 1380/2013/EU (res_reg_cfp): Regulation 1380/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on the Common Fisheries Policy, amending Council Regulations (EC) No 1954/2003 and (EC) No 1224/2009 and repealing Council Regulations (EC) No 2371/2002 and (EC) No

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Natural Products

Goal Description

This goal measures how sustainably people harvest non-food products from the sea. From seashells and sponges to aquarium fish, natural products contribute to local economies and international trade. For the BHI sprat was included as a natural product because it often used for fish meal production or animal food.

Model & Data Overview

The data used for this goal are composed of total sprat spawning biomass (SSB) and fishing mortality (F) data. The current status is calculated exactly as described in the Fisheries goal. The spawning biomass data have been accessed from the ICES homepage by searching for ‘sprat’ > specify the ecoregion as Baltic Sea > search for the 2013 assessment.

Reference points

The reference point used for the computation are based on the MSY principle and are described as a functional relationship. MSY means the highest theoretical equilibrium yield that can be continuously taken on average from a stock under existing average environmental conditions without significantly affecting the reproduction process (European Union 2013, World Ocean Review 2013).

Other information

External advisors/goalkeepers are Christian Möllmann & Stefan Neuenfeldt

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

B/Bmsy by stock and year of Sprat (np_bbmsy): ICES Bmsy. Data sources:

F/Fmsy by stock and year of Sprat (np_ffmsy): ICES Fmsy. Data sources:

Landings by stock and year (np_landings): Annual Landings by ICES area and stock. Data sources: -ICES

Pressure

nitrogen pollution (po_nload): nitrogen load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven large basins

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Atmospheric deposition (po_atmos_pcb153): Atmospheric deposition of PCB-153 on the Baltic Sea . Data sources: - HELCOM provides EMEP/MSC data for Baltic Sea basins

Phosphorus pollution (po_pload): phosphorus load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven major basins

Trash pollution (po_trash): Density of trash from coastal land and sea (Ocean Conservancy). Data sources: - Ocean Conservancy International Coastal Cleanup 2012

Bottom oxygen level (mg_L_1) (hab_anoxia): From Carstensen et al. 2014. Carstensen provided dbf files containing O2 (mg_L_1) for a series of years for the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland. Other areas are not included in this study but at the present time have no anoxia problems - therefore they will recieve a pressure value of 0. Data scaled between 0 and 1.

Resilience

Directive 2009/147/EC (res_reg_birds): Directive 2009/147/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 November 2009 on the conservation of wild birds

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Regulation 1380/2013/EU (res_reg_cfp): Regulation 1380/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on the Common Fisheries Policy, amending Council Regulations (EC) No 1954/2003 and (EC) No 1224/2009 and repealing Council Regulations (EC) No 2371/2002 and (EC) No

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 1992/43/EC (res_reg_hd): Directive 1992/43/EC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora

Convention on the Protection (res_reg_helcom): Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area 1992

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Carbon Storage

Goal Description

The Carbon Storage goal captures the ability of the coastal habitats to remove carbon given their carbon uptake rate and health conditions. A score of 100 means all habitats that contribute to carbon removal are still intact or have been restored and they can function to their full carbon burial potential. Highly productive coastal wetland ecosystems or seagrass store substantially large amount of carbon have the highest sequestration rates of any habitats on earth. They are also threatened by under-regulated coastal development but are amenable to restoration and conservation efforts.

For the BHI, as data was limited we used seagrass (Zostera sp.) coverage data to assess vegetation-based carbon storage. There is high uncertainty associated with using only seagrass data. However, we aim to highlight the need to better monitor marine vegetation in order to understand the carbon storage capacity in coastal areas.

Model & Data

Seagrass data (Zostera sp.) data were downloaded from the HELCOM Map & Data service. Select: Biodiversity >> Redlisted species >> macrophytes >> LC least concern >> Zostera.

The data were classified as follows:

0 = no observations
1 = present before year 1995 or in 1995
2 = present after year 1995
3 = present before and after year 1995

Expert opinion (Christoffer Boström) suggested that no growth of Zostera sp naturally occurs in these BHI ID regions: 12, 15, 17, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, and were left as NA in this analysis.

Reference points

A Zostera sp classification of 2 (present after year 1995) or 3 (present before and after year 1995) have used as reference points.

Considerations for BHI 2.0

Higher-resolution and more recent coverage data should be used for analysis.

Other information

External advisors/goalkeepers: Christoffer Boström and Markku Viitasalo

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

status of CS (cs_status): Status of CS based on HELCOM Zostera spatial data & carbon storage capacity

Pressure

Current surface salinity water rescaled between historic max and future min (cc_sal_surf): Modelled annual surface water (0-5 m) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current deep water salinity (cc_sal_deep): Modelled annual deep water (depth differs by basin) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current sea surface temperature (cc_sst): Modelled Jul-Aug SST using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

nitrogen pollution (po_nload): nitrogen load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven large basins

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Atmospheric deposition (po_atmos_pcb153): Atmospheric deposition of PCB-153 on the Baltic Sea . Data sources: - HELCOM provides EMEP/MSC data for Baltic Sea basins

Phosphorus pollution (po_pload): phosphorus load including atmospheric and land-based sources from HELCOM data normalized to ceilings set by HELCOM for each of the seven major basins

Resilience

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 2010/75/EU (res_reg_ied): Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 November 2010 on industrial emissions (integrated pollution prevention and control)

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Council Directive 91/676/EEC (res_reg_nd): Council Directive 91/676/EEC of 12 December 1991 concerning the protection of waters against pollution caused by nitrates from agricultural sources

Directive 1991/271/EEC Council Directive (res_reg_uwwtd): Directive 1991/271/EEC Council Directive of 21 May 1991 concerning urban waste water treatment

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Tourism & Recreation

Goal Description

Tourism in coastal areas is a major component of thriving coastal communities and a measure of how much people value ocean systems, i.e. by traveling to coastal and ocean areas. This goal is not about the revenue or livelihoods that are generated by tourism and recreation (that is captured in the livelihoods goal) but instead captures the value that people have for experiencing and enjoying coastal areas. A score of 100 means a region utilizes its full recreational potential without harming the ecosystem.

In the BHI, we used employment data from the EU Study on Blue Growth (see below) to assess the status of Tourism. Three sectors were included: Coastal tourism, Yachting and maris, and Cruise tourism. No sustainability measure of any of the blue sectors exist yet on the Baltic Sea scale, and thus was not included in this study.

Model & Data

Data for each country were downloaded from the EU-Study on Blue Growth, Maritime Policy and the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region” identified the potential for Blue Growth in each of the EU Member States (MS) of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) and at sea basin level.

Reference points

Study in support of policy measures for maritime and coastal tourism at EU level (Page 157) states that the Nordic Countries sea basins tourism has a potential to grow annually by 2.2 % until 2020. We therefore set the reference point to an annual growth of 2.2% for ten years from 2010 onwards for all three tourism categories (see above).

Other information

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

Total coastal nights in accommodation stays (tr_accommodation_stays): Total coastal nights in accommodation stays. Data sources: - tour_occ_nin2 and Eurostat coastal stays tour_occ_nin2c

Tourism and Recreation status scores (tr_status): Status scores calculated based on Study on Blue Growth, Maritime Policy and the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region

Tourism and Recreation trend scores (tr_trend): Trend scores calculated based on Study on Blue Growth, Maritime Policy and the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region

Pressure

Current sea surface temperature (cc_sst): Modelled Jul-Aug SST using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Trash pollution (po_trash): Density of trash from coastal land and sea (Ocean Conservancy). Data sources: - Ocean Conservancy International Coastal Cleanup 2012

Resilience

Directive 2009/147/EC (res_reg_birds): Directive 2009/147/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 November 2009 on the conservation of wild birds

Directive 2006/7/EC (res_reg_bwd): Directive 2006/7/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 February 2006 concerning the management of bathing water quality and repealing the Directive 76/160/EC

Regulation 1380/2013/EU (res_reg_cfp): Regulation 1380/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on the Common Fisheries Policy, amending Council Regulations (EC) No 1954/2003 and (EC) No 1224/2009 and repealing Council Regulations (EC) No 2371/2002 and (EC) No

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Regulation 1907/2006/EC (res_reg_reach): Regulation 1907/2006/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 December 2006 concerning the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH), establishing a European Chemicals Agency, amending Directive 1999/45/EC

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Livelihoods & Economies: Livelihoods

Goal Description

The Livelihoods sub-goal describes livelihood quantity and quality for people living on the coast. Livelihoods includes the number of jobs in different marine related sectors. Ideally, this sub-goal would speak to the quality and quantity of marine jobs in an area. It would encompass all the marine sectors that supply jobs and wages to coastal communities, incorporating information on the sustainability of different sectors while also telling about the working conditions and job satisfaction.

Model & Data

We downloaded Eurostat country-level employment rate and target employment rate from 2008 to 2012. We chose this time frame because ECO status, based on Blue Growth report, used 2010 data. So we wanted to keep the time frame similar. (Data is not available for Russia.)

Reference points

Country-specific target employment rate for 2010 from Eurostat (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=0&language=en&pcode=t2020_10&tableSelection=1 ) have been used. These data are based on employment rate (in %) by sex, age group (20-64). We used Eurostat data from 2010 (same year as the Blue Growth data) and assumed that the same age employment is true for the blue sectors.

Other information

External advisors/goalkeepers: Martin Quaas and Wilfried Rickels.

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

Number of people employed in each BHI region 25km buffer (liv_regional_employ): Employment percentage by eutS2 region from Eurostat. Data sources: - Eurostat database lfst_r_lfe2emprt

Number of people employed nationally (liv_national_employ): Employment percentage by eutS0 region from Eurostat. Data sources: - Eurostat database lfst_r_lfe2emprt

Status of Livelihood (liv_status): LIV status calculated in LIV data prep based on ratio of coastal/national employment rate.

Trend of Livelihood (liv_trend): LIV trend calculated in data prep. Based on most recent five years’ status scores.

Pressure

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Trash pollution (po_trash): Density of trash from coastal land and sea (Ocean Conservancy). Data sources: - Ocean Conservancy International Coastal Cleanup 2012

Resilience

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Regulation 1907/2006/EC (res_reg_reach): Regulation 1907/2006/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 December 2006 concerning the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH), establishing a European Chemicals Agency, amending Directive 1999/45/EC

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Livelihoods & Economies: Economies

Goal Description

The Economies goal captures the economic value associated with marine industries using revenue from marine sectors. It is composed of a single component, revenue.

Model & Data

Data for each country were downloaded from the “EU-Study on Blue Growth, Maritime Policy and the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region”, which provided 2010 sector-specific revenue data, or Gross Value Added (GVA), in the country-specific Appendix. The report also identified the potential for Blue Growth in each of the EU Member States (MS) of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) as well as at sea-basin level.

The goal model compares the combined total revenue per country and the reference revenue of that country. Each country receives the same score because the reference point (see below) is a fixed percentage growth of that country’s revenue in 2010. Country-level data is then distributed to BHI regions. (Due to a lack of data, Russian regions (19, 22, 33) have NA scores.)

Reference points

As reference points we used a 1.5% annual growth between 2010 and 2020, as envisioned in the blue growth report.

Other information

external advisors/goalkeepers: Martin Quaas and Wilfried Rickels.

Full data preparation information and code

### Data used in model

Status & trend

Per capita GDP per BHI region (le_gdp_region): Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data (nominal values) from Eurostat. Data sources: - Eurostat

national per capita GDP (le_gdp_country): Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data (nominal values) from Eurostat. Data sources: - Eurostat

Status of eco (eco_status): Status of economics based on revenue from different blue sectors from EU’s Blue Growth Report

Trend of eco (eco_trend): Trend of economics based on GDP per capita in the BHI regions compared with country-level GDP per capita

Pressure

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Trash pollution (po_trash): Density of trash from coastal land and sea (Ocean Conservancy). Data sources: - Ocean Conservancy International Coastal Cleanup 2012

Resilience

Directive 2009/147/EC (res_reg_birds): Directive 2009/147/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 November 2009 on the conservation of wild birds

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Directive 1999/32/EC (res_reg_nec): Directive 1999/32/EC of 26 April 1999 relating to a reduction in the sulphur content of certain liquid fuels and amending Directive 93/12/EEC

Regulation 1907/2006/EC (res_reg_reach): Regulation 1907/2006/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 December 2006 concerning the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH), establishing a European Chemicals Agency, amending Directive 1999/45/EC

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Sense of Place: Iconic Species

Goal Description

Iconic species are those that are relevant to local cultural identity through a species’ relationship to one or more of the following: 1) traditional activities such as fishing, hunting or commerce; 2) local ethnic or religious practices; 3) existence value; and 4) locally-recognized aesthetic value (e.g., touristic attractions/common subjects for art such as whales). Habitat-forming species are not included in this definition of iconic species, nor are species that are harvested solely for economic or utilitarian purposes (even though they may be iconic to a sector or individual). This sub-goal assesses how well those species are conserved.

For the BHI, a survey identified the following iconic species:

Cod
Flounder
Herring
Perch
Pike
Salmon
Trout
Sprat
Grey seal
European otter
Harbour seal
Harbour porpoise
Ringed seal
White-tailed sea eagle
Common eider/

Model & Data

HELCOM provides species checklists for the Baltic that include distribution and a complete list of all species assessed with IUCN criteria. Species were assigned a threat category (ranging from “extinct” to “least concern”) and assigned a weight. The goal score is the average weight of all species assessed.

Reference points

The target is for all species are in the “least concern” category; this will produce a score of 100. The lower cut-off point when 75% of species are extinct and score is 0.

Other information

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

ICO spp status (ico_status): HELCOM species distributions and threat level based upon IUCN red list criteria. Data sources: - HELCOM

Pressure

Current surface salinity water rescaled between historic max and future min (cc_sal_surf): Modelled annual surface water (0-5 m) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current deep water salinity (cc_sal_deep): Modelled annual deep water (depth differs by basin) salinity using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Current sea surface temperature (cc_sst): Modelled Jul-Aug SST using the BALTSEM model, Future projections force by the ECHAM5 global climate model A1b scenario.

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Atmospheric deposition (po_atmos_pcb153): Atmospheric deposition of PCB-153 on the Baltic Sea . Data sources: - HELCOM provides EMEP/MSC data for Baltic Sea basins

Bottom oxygen level (mg_L_1) (hab_anoxia): From Carstensen et al. 2014. Carstensen provided dbf files containing O2 (mg_L_1) for a series of years for the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland. Other areas are not included in this study but at the present time have no anoxia problems - therefore they will recieve a pressure value of 0. Data scaled between 0 and 1.

Invasive species pressure scores (sp_invasives): Invasive species scores based on the number of invasive species introduction evenets in each country.

Resilience

Directive 2009/147/EC (res_reg_birds): Directive 2009/147/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 November 2009 on the conservation of wild birds

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Convention on Biodiversity (res_reg_cbd): Convention on Biodiversity

Regulation 1380/2013/EU (res_reg_cfp): Regulation 1380/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on the Common Fisheries Policy, amending Council Regulations (EC) No 1954/2003 and (EC) No 1224/2009 and repealing Council Regulations (EC) No 2371/2002 and (EC) No

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (res_reg_cites): Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 1992/43/EC (res_reg_hd): Directive 1992/43/EC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Sense of Place: Lasting Special Places

Goal Description

The Lasting Special Places sub-goal focuses on those geographic locations that hold particular value for aesthetic, spiritual, cultural, recreational or existence reasons, and assesses how well they are protected. For the BHI, the designation and management of marine protected areas (MPAs) captures the commitment of a country to preserving areas of biological, aesthetic or ecosystem service value. The designation of MPAs is also included in international agreements, such as the Convention on Biodiversity’s target for the designation of 10% of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) to be in MPAs.

Model & Data

The model assesses the area of MPAs in each country in relation to its EEZs, and their management status. Management status are broken down to three categories and weighted on a 0-1 scale:

0.1 = designated
0.4 = designated and partly managed
1.0 = designated and managed

Both MPA area and management status data were downloaded from the HELCOM MPA website.

Reference points

The target is for 10% of a country’s EEZs is designated as MPAs, and are fully managed.

Other information

External advisors/goalkeepers: Sofia Wikström

Full data preparation information and code

Data used in model

Status & trend

Status scores of LSP (lsp_status): Status calcluated

Trend of LSP (lsp_trend): See goal description above or data prep documents for more information.

Pressure

Weakness (ss_wgi): Inverse of World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Trash pollution (po_trash): Density of trash from coastal land and sea (Ocean Conservancy). Data sources: - Ocean Conservancy International Coastal Cleanup 2012

Resilience

Directive 2009/147/EC (res_reg_birds): Directive 2009/147/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 November 2009 on the conservation of wild birds

HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (res_reg_bsap): HELCOM 2007. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). HELCOM Ministerial Meeting. Adopted in Krakow, Poland, 15 November 2007.

Regulation 1380/2013/EU (res_reg_cfp): Regulation 1380/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on the Common Fisheries Policy, amending Council Regulations (EC) No 1954/2003 and (EC) No 1224/2009 and repealing Council Regulations (EC) No 2371/2002 and (EC) No

Paris Climate Agreement (res_reg_cop21): Paris Climate Agreement

Directive 1992/43/EC (res_reg_hd): Directive 1992/43/EC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora

Directive 2008/56/EC (res_reg_msfd): Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy

Directive 2014/89/EC (res_reg_mspd): Directive 2014/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning

Directive 2000/60/EC (res_reg_wfd): Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy

Strength (wgi_all): World Governance Indicators (WGI) six combined scores. Data sources: - Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI)

Clean Waters: Eutrophication

Goal Description

The Nutrient sub-goal of the Clean Water goal captures the degree to which local waters are affected by eutrophication. For the BHI four eutrophication indicators were included:

Winter (December-February) dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN)
Dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) concentrations in the surface layer (0 - 10 m depth)
Summer (June-September) chlorophyll a concentration in the surface layer (0 - 10 m depth)
Summer (June-September) Secchi depth
Hypoxic area below the halocline

The first three indicators are HELCOM core indicators (Baltic Sea Environmental Proceedings No 143). Hypoxic area is taken from Carstensen et al 2014.

Model & Data

The geometric mean of the status of all five indicators have been calculated for Bornholm Basin, Western Gotland Basin, Eastern Gotland Basin, Northern Baltic Proper and Gulf of Finland. For the other basins only four indicators (without hypoxic area) have been used to calculate the eutrophication status.

Mean Summer Secchi depth (June-September) data from ICES database.
Hypoxic area data published by Carstensen et al. 2014. Deep water anoxia are defined as O2 level <2 mg⋅L−1. It represents the long-term effects of human activities on nutrient levels and water quality. We used deep water anoxia only for the following basins: Bornholm Basin, Western Gotland Basin, Eastern Gotland Basin, Northern Baltic Proper and Gulf of Finland.
Winter (DIN), (DIP), and summer chorophyll a data have been downloaded from the Baltic Nest Institute database (DAS and NEST) with help from Miguel Rodriguez Medina.

Reference points

Secchi depth reference points are set based on the results obtained in the TARGREV project (HELCOM 2013a), taking advantage of the work carried out during the EUTRO PRO project (HELCOM 2009) and national work for WFD. The final targets were set through an expert evaluation process done by the intersessional activity on development of core eutrophication indicators (HELCOM CORE EUTRO) and the targets were adopted by the HELCOM Heads of Delegations. More information:

Approaches and methods for eutrophication target setting in the Baltic Sea region
Fleming-Lehtinen and Laamanen. 2012. Long-term changes in Secchi depth and the role of phytoplankton in explaining light attenuation in the Baltic Sea. Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science 102-103:1-10
EUTRO-OPER. Included on this page is a link to the Eutrophication Assessment Manual

The hypoxic area reference point is set to be the hypoxic area of each basin in 1906.

Reference points for the winter (DIN), (DIP), and summer chlorophyll a have been assessed from the Baltic Sea Environmental Proceedings No 143.

Other information

External advisors/goalkeepers: Christoph Humborg